Neta Exit Poll 2019 – Here’s who could sit on the throne

Neta Exit Poll 2019 – Here’s who could sit on the throne
May 21, 2019 Neta Team

Elections are over and now its now time for exit polls. The next two days would certainly feel like the longest days of the year as we wait on the edge of the seat, hooked to numbers and more of numbers! Team Neta brings you the most reliable and trustworthy numbers based on data collected from more 10 mn citizens across the country. Let us remind you that Neta App predicted results of the assembly polls held in 2018 more accurately than a majority of pollsters who overestimated the final count for BJP and Congress. We won’t keep you waiting for long! Let’s go straight to the numbers…

Congress’ tally to more than double

In 2014, Congress delivered the worst performance in its history as it managed to win just 44 Lok Sabha seats. This time, Congress is likely to bag 107 seats, which is more than twice its previous tally. In terms of numbers, the only losses the party could suffer are likely to come from Telangana (-1) and West Bengal (-2) respectively. Congress could make gains across 19 states and 3 Union Territories. Here’s a detailed account –

State2014 ResultNeta App Forecast, 2019Gain 
Assam 352
Bihar253
Chandigarh011
Chhattisgarh176
Delhi022
Goa011
Gujarat055
Haryana132
Jammu and Kashmir022
Jharkhand022
Karnataka9101
Kerala8102
Madhya Pradesh2119
Maharashtra2108
Nagaland011
Odisha022
Puducherry011
Punjab 385
Rajasthan088
Tamil Nadu033
Uttar Pradesh242
Uttarakhand011
Total3310269

BJP stares at losses but will emerge as the single largest party

According to our data, BJP’s tally could go down from 278 in 2014 to 202 in 2019 – a loss of 76 seats. BJP’s victory in 2014 was primarily a Hindi heartland victory. The Hindi heartland comprises of Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand, and Chhattisgarh. With a strike rate of more than 90%, the BJP had won a total of 190 seats in the Hindi belt in 2014. In 2019 however, it is likely to lose as many as 83 of these seats and manage to win just 107. 

Here’s a detailed account on BJP’s losses in the Hindi heartland

Hindi Heartland 2014 ResultNeta App ForecastTotal Loss
Uttar Pradesh71/8033/8038
Bihar22/409/4013
Madhya Pradesh27/2918/299
Rajasthan25/2517/258
Uttarakhand5/54/51
Delhi7/75/72
Jharkhand12/147/145
Chhattisgarh10/114/116
Haryana7/106/101
Himachal Pradesh4/44/40
Total Seats190/225107/22583

Apart from the Hindi belt, the following 7 states contribute to the collective losses of BJP –

State2014 ResultNeta App Forecast, 2019Loss
Assam761
Goa211
Gujarat26215
Jammu and Kashmir321
Karnataka17152
Maharashtra23176
Punjab211

In order to recover these losses, the party had planned to make inroads into Odisha, West Bengal, and the North Eastern states. Neta observes that the party could indeed make gains in the following states –

StateNeta Seat Forecast for BJP    
Kerala1
Manipur2
Tripura2
Odisha10
West Bengal9

So, the BJP would fall short of the half-way mark but yet would emerge as the single largest party. Going by the numbers, the formation of the next government ultimately boils down to stitching together a coalition.

Many Bandhans – The coalition mathematics

The NDA in 2014 consisted of BJP and its 19 allies out of which 11 allies together contributed about 54 seats. The coalition sands across the political spectrum have shifted making way for a new picture to emerge. Here’s what it could look like –

CoalitionNeta App Forecast, 2019
NDA242
UPA164
Mahagathbandhan43
Left Front5
Others88

At 242, the current NDA with its constituent allies is likely to miss the majority mark by 30 seats. The UPA could bag 164 seats. The Mahagathbandhan is likely to win about 43 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh upsetting the BJP’s equation. ‘Others’, which constitutes former NDA and UPA allies could win about 88 seats thus putting them in a position to play the kingmaker. Here’s a detailed forecast –

The biggest election in the world has ended and all eyes now shift to May 23. Going by the current numbers that we have, it could be a BJP led NDA government yet again. Don’t agree with us? Let us know your numbers in the comment boxes then!

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