Elections are over and now its now time for exit polls. The next two days would certainly feel like the longest days of the year as we wait on the edge of the seat, hooked to numbers and more of numbers! Team Neta brings you the most reliable and trustworthy numbers based on data collected from more 10 mn citizens across the country. Let us remind you that Neta App predicted results of the assembly polls held in 2018 more accurately than a majority of pollsters who overestimated the final count for BJP and Congress. We won’t keep you waiting for long! Let’s go straight to the numbers…
Congress’ tally to more than double
In 2014, Congress delivered the worst performance in its history as it managed to win just 44 Lok Sabha seats. This time, Congress is likely to bag 107 seats, which is more than twice its previous tally. In terms of numbers, the only losses the party could suffer are likely to come from Telangana (-1) and West Bengal (-2) respectively. Congress could make gains across 19 states and 3 Union Territories. Here’s a detailed account –
|State||2014 Result||Neta App Forecast, 2019||Gain|
|Jammu and Kashmir||0||2||2|
BJP stares at losses but will emerge as the single largest party
According to our data, BJP’s tally could go down from 278 in 2014 to 202 in 2019 – a loss of 76 seats. BJP’s victory in 2014 was primarily a Hindi heartland victory. The Hindi heartland comprises of Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand, and Chhattisgarh. With a strike rate of more than 90%, the BJP had won a total of 190 seats in the Hindi belt in 2014. In 2019 however, it is likely to lose as many as 83 of these seats and manage to win just 107.
Here’s a detailed account on BJP’s losses in the Hindi heartland
|Hindi Heartland||2014 Result||Neta App Forecast||Total Loss|
Apart from the Hindi belt, the following 7 states contribute to the collective losses of BJP –
|State||2014 Result||Neta App Forecast, 2019||Loss|
|Jammu and Kashmir||3||2||1|
In order to recover these losses, the party had planned to make inroads into Odisha, West Bengal, and the North Eastern states. Neta observes that the party could indeed make gains in the following states –
|State||Neta Seat Forecast for BJP|
So, the BJP would fall short of the half-way mark but yet would emerge as the single largest party. Going by the numbers, the formation of the next government ultimately boils down to stitching together a coalition.
Many Bandhans – The coalition mathematics
The NDA in 2014 consisted of BJP and its 19 allies out of which 11 allies together contributed about 54 seats. The coalition sands across the political spectrum have shifted making way for a new picture to emerge. Here’s what it could look like –
|Coalition||Neta App Forecast, 2019|
At 242, the current NDA with its constituent allies is likely to miss the majority mark by 30 seats. The UPA could bag 164 seats. The Mahagathbandhan is likely to win about 43 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh upsetting the BJP’s equation. ‘Others’, which constitutes former NDA and UPA allies could win about 88 seats thus putting them in a position to play the kingmaker. Here’s a detailed forecast –
The biggest election in the world has ended and all eyes now shift to May 23. Going by the current numbers that we have, it could be a BJP led NDA government yet again. Don’t agree with us? Let us know your numbers in the comment boxes then!